Preliminary Results

Moldova's CEC has released the following preliminary results:

Name	PCRM	PPCD	AMN	PL	PLDM	PDM	PSD	PEMAVE
Moldova	704876 (45.07%)	29812 (1.91%)	115288 (7.37%)	224527 (14.36%)	256570 (16.4%)	197206 (12.61%)	29322 (1.87%)	6440 (0.41%)

The PCRM received 49.5% of the vote in the April election, falling off about 5% (or 55,263 votes). Perhaps the most striking difference is the drop in wasted votes. Around 15.2% of all votes cast were allocated to parties that did not pass the threshold in April, compared to 4.2% yesterday. Wasted votes magnified the PCRM's seat acquisition in April.

While the lower threshold in yesterday's election may have influenced the behavior of voters and parties, the number of contestants and distribution of votes tightened rather than increased. Indeed, institutional changes are less likely to have influenced the number of competitive parties than the unusual circumstances of this election and the consequences of the April protests.

If the preliminary results are certified, opposition parties should have 53 seats (and the PCRM 48). This would allow the opposition - if it could work as a cohesive group - to elect a speaker. The PCRM's opponents have a history of discord and strife, however. In my recent book, I sketched a portrait of the Moldovan opposition, noting that it behaved like its kin in many post-Soviet countries. While the opposition is united by a desire to challenge the party-of-power, it is divided on strategy and tactics. This disunity is manifested in a proliferation of parties, often headed by strong personalities, who cannot coordinate long-term cooperation. In cases where the opposition successfully ousts an entrenched government, as in Ukraine, the opposition quickly dissolves into warring factions.

With these results in place, Moldova's opposition coalition would fall well short of the 61 votes needed to select the president. While another early election cannot be held for a year, it is likely that partisan rancor rather than reconciliation is ahead. Victory celebrations may be held in Chisinau today, but the (metaphorical) knives are likely to come out soon as each opposition group tries to carve out its share of the spoils.

Voting Underway in Moldova

Moldova's re-do of its April parliamentary election is underway. Pre-election polling suggests that the PCRM will not obtain the 60 seats it desires, and that more opposition parties could enter parliament.

The CEC has reported 30% turnout at 12:45 p.m., about 5% higher than turnout was at the same point in the previous election. See Moldpress, Moldova Azi, and Imedia for coverage of election day activities.

Update (7/29 at 10:30 and 4:00): Thanks again to my colleagues at imedia, here is a breakdown of turnout by reporting periods:

April 2009: 6.6% (0945); 27.1% (1245); 43.0% (1545); 52.1% (1845); 59.1 (2145)
July 2009: 10.7% (0945); 30.0% (1245); 40.0% (1545); 49.3% (1845); 58.8 (2145)

Imedia is live-blogging the results in Moldovan and English. Preliminary results give the PCRM the lead. Votes for four other parties currently exceed the 5% threshold.

Kyrgyzstan Presidential "Election" Update

Preliminary results indicate that incumbent President Kurmanbek Bakiyev received 89% of the vote, allowing him to claim an easy victory in the presidential election when the voting is certified. Citing fraud, Almazbek Atambayev (the leading opposition candidate) withdrew from competition on election day along with another minor contestant. Two members of parliament associated with his party were arrested, sparking a protest that was repressed by the use of substantial force. Officials have annulled the results of at least one precinct, noting problems with vote administration. The usual suspects declared that the election met international standards (CIS, SCO), while the OSCE criticized the quality of the campaign and the process of casting and counting ballots.

The Central Electoral Commission website is currently non-responsive. I have encountered problems with this site in the past; it is possible that the relatively high volume of traffic has temporarily shut it down. If data become available, I will post additional observations.

Polling in Moldova

A recent poll, conducted by the Association of Moldovan Sociologists and Demographers and assessed by imedia, suggests that the upcoming election could once again yield a PCRM plurality, but not a majority. According to the poll, respondents indicated the following preferences:

PCRM: 29.7%

Liberal Party: 13.3%

Liberal Democratic Party: 12.8%

Our Moldova: 7.9%

Democratic Party: 7.1%

Other parties: under 3%

Remaining respondents were undecided.

As imedia notes, polls prior to the previous election also yielded a high proportion of undecided respondents. Comparing polling results to the election outcomes, it appears that the PCRM disproportionately attracted undecided voters.

With the possible entry of four opposition parties to parliament, Moldova may be headed toward an ongoing governance crisis like its neighbor, Ukraine, or toward some kind of grand compromise. Acting President Vladimir Voronin's rhetoric points to both possibilities. While he has called the opposition "radical right-wing parties," Voronin has also claimed that the opposition's "ideology" has been changing to promote Moldova's interests and that a coalition could be possible. The overall tone of the campaign, and events in the spring, suggest that ongoing crisis is more likely than compromise, however.

Thanks again to imedia for extensive information on Moldova.

Bad Omens

As late July elections in Kyrgyzstan and Moldova approach, disturbing developments have surfaced in several post-Soviet states.

• In Azerbaijan, two young pro-democracy activists were beaten and detained. Harassment of the opposition is not unprecedented, but this attack occurred publicly in a popular restaurant. The official version of events has changed, while the attackers have been released and the activists were tried and convicted on the charge of hooliganism. Several youth movements have used the Internet to challenge - and poke fun at - the government. Open challenges to government authority have been met with repression in the past, but expressions of dissent seem to be tolerated to a greater extent than in several other post-Soviet societies.
  
  This provocation raises the possibility that opposition to authority will be met with harsher responses. A direct link to events in Iran is unlikely, but the capacity of the opposition to mobilize protesters in Azerbaijan's southern neighbor may have raised alarms in Baku and encouraged authorities to send a strong message to potential opponents.
  
  
• While Kyrgyzstan's incumbent president Kurmanbek Bakiyev faces a legitimate challenger in the Social Democratic Party's Almaz Altanbayev, he is nevertheless expected to win. Opposition editors (1, 2) and journalists (1, 2) have been targeted in attacks that may be politically motivated. In addition, while Bakiyev has been courting religious voters, but some have allegedly been targeted as dissenters.
  
  
• My imedia contact in Moldova has identified many important developments as the snap parliamentary election approaches. First, the election law has been modified, lowering the threshold from 6% to 5%, and lowering the turnout requirement from 50% (+1) to 33%. Second, the election is scheduled to take place on a work day (Wednesday, July 29). Moldovan elections are typically held on Sundays. Third, no more than nine parties (and no independents running) will contest. Actiunea Europeana just withdrew, and other parties could also drop out. None of this is disturbing news, and some of it - such as the reduction in the threshold - could be beneficial to pluralism.
  
  However, the campaign atmosphere has been stacked against the opposition, with state TV supporting the PCRM. My contact notes that the"...narrative is that [the opposition] tried to stage a coup with Romanian support and that if people don't vote for the Party of Communists, Moldova as a country will disappear." The opposition has failed to coordinate its challenge to the PCRM once again, rendering it at least partially culpable in its likely defeat. Some polling is due to be released, and I will comment more on Moldova's election as information becomes available.
  

While I Was Out

After my research trip to Lithuania, I traveled to Georgia and Kazakhstan. While I was unable to blog during my trip, political developments related to elections surfaced across the region.

1) The most notable development was the failure of Moldova's parliament to elect a president, forcing new elections. Frankly, I was surprised at the resolve of the opposition; only one defector would have secured the presidential post for the PCRM. Presumably, the rewards offered to a defector were great. But, the opposition also galvanized and made clear that defectors would be identified (If an opposition member were to defect, this action would be revealed by the MP entering the voting booth). The new election is likely to be quite contentious, with allegations of wrongdoing by the losers a guarantee. As I noted in a previous post, evidence of massive fraud was absent from the precinct-level data, based on my assessment. The opposition wants better control over voter lists to ensure that "dead souls" do not cast ballots. The battle over election administration will heat up over the coming weeks. In addition, as my imedia contact noted, the elections are likely to take place in the late summer or early fall. After this early election, parliament cannot be dissolved for a year. Barring a change in fortunes for one or more parties, the new elections may force the PCRM and opposition to bargain more seriously. Alternatively, Moldova will enter into a state of perpetual political crisis like its neighbor, Ukraine.

2) The party-of power won the hotly contested Yerevan council race, allowing it to win the mayoral seat. Mayoral positions, especially in post-Soviet capital cities, are important staging areas for politicians to launch national political careers. In addition, mayors generally determine who has the right to assemble, and hold sway over municipal police. Levon Ter-Petrossian, the former president and failed candidate in the last election was also unsuccessful in this contest. He and his allies allege that fraud was the primary reason for their loss.

3) European parliamentary elections were held in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and all other constituent members of the EU. Turnout varied across the Baltic states: Estonia's turnout jumped from 26.8% in 2004 to 43.2% in 2009; Latvia's increased from 41.3% to 52.6%; and Lithuania's plummeted from 48.4% to 20.9%. The financial crisis may have encouraged the increased turnout in Estonia and Latvia. The resolution of Lithuania's presidential election in the first round probably depressed turnout; the second round would have been scheduled for the same day as the EU poll. Six Baltic seats went to the European People's Party (Christian Democrats) and European Democrats (1 Estonia, 1 Latvia, 4 Lithuania); four to the Socialist Group (1 Estonia, 3 Lithuania), six to the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (3 Estonia, 1 Latvia, 2 Lithuania), five to the Union of Europe of the Nations (3 Latvia, 2 Lithuania), one to the Greens (Latvia), and four to other groups (1 Estonia, 2 Latvia, 1 Lithuania). More information is available on the EU's election site.

4) Protests against Mikheil Saakashvili continued in Georgia, with the opposition demanding his resignation and early presidential and parliamentary elections. During my visit to Tbilisi, I visited the protest site around parliament several times, and was able to speak with some regime opponents. My general sense - based not on scientific data analysis but rather impressions - is that dissatisfaction is deep, but no clear preference for an alternative leader exists. The protest site was occupied during the day, but only a handful of protesters quietly monitored the "cells." Regular evening protest events are more lively, and the opposition has mobilized large numbers in some protest actions. But, the inertia to oust Misha seems to be limited. While people are unhappy, the precedent of removing the president in this manner would likely set off a destructive cycle of protests by election losers.

5) Seven candidates were approved for the July presidential election in Kyrgyzstan, and eleven were rejected.

6) While there were no major election issues during my stay in Kazakhstan, I noted an interesting article in a local newspaper. As Kazakhstan prepares for its presidency of the OSCE beginning in 2010, it has begun staking out its plan for reform. Watch for challenges to the status quo on election observation missions.

7) Ukrainian politicians continue to fight over possible coalition arrangements while positioning themselves for the upcoming presidential election. More on this issue later.

Delaying the Vote

The showdown in Moldova was slated for today. However, according to my imedia contact, the PCRM met briefly and claimed that on a religious holiday (Ascension) politicians "should not be fighting." The vote was rescheduled for June 3. Clearly, the PCRM has not been able to woo any opposition deputy, an impressive show of resolve by the opposition. My imedia contact noted that the opposition has barred its deputies from entering the voting booth, effectively "outing" any defector if one were to appear. While the PCRM promises to negotiate with the opposition, no clear lines of negotiation have emerged, nor have any compromise solutions. As was the case several days ago, the PCRM lacks only one vote to elect the president, and the opposition hopes to hold out for new elections (or at least a better deal).

Mayoral Election in Yerevan

In ten days, Armenia's capital city will host an interesting race: the thwarted presidential candidate, and ex-president, Lev Ter-Petrossian, will face off against the government's preferred candidate, and incumbent mayor, Gagik Beglarian. Onnik Krikorian, at the Caucasian Knot, has an interesting post on the upcoming contest.

UPDATE (5/22/09): The analysis connecting local elections to disputes among coalition partners on Eurasianet.org is worth a read.

Moldova Update

Moldova's president is elected by parliament, and requires 61 votes to secure the seat. While the PCRM dominated the parliamentary vote, it only obtained 60 seats. Vladimir Voronin, the former president, gained the powerful post of parliamentary speaker after the most recent election.

The opposition has thus far held firm and denied the PCRM's presidential candidates (the PCRM nominated two in the first round because the rules require a contested race). Not one deputy has defected or been bought out. The real showdown will be on May 28 in a contest with new candidates (the losing candidates in this round cannot run again) [CORRECTION - Losing candidates may contest again]. If no candidate wins, Voronin will be required to dissolve parliament and call a new election. The stakes will be high over the next eight days, and opposition deputies are likely to be tempted with an assortment of rewards for supporting the PCRM candidate.

Thanks to imedia for news and analysis used in this post.

Ukraine's Presidential Election Restored

Faction leaders have agreed to restore the January 17, 2010 date for Ukraine's presidential election. Barring unforeseen complications, never out of the realm of possibilities, President Yushchenko's preferred date is confirmed.