Monday, November 5, 2012

Monkey Cage Post Update

As part of the collaboration between The Monkey Cage and Electoral Studies, I have posted the initial draft of my Election Note about Ukraine's parliamentary elections at TMC. I wrote the note a few days ago and final tabulations have slightly altered the results. With 99.95% of the protocols in the system, the results currently indicate:

Party
PR Vote %
PR Seats
SMD Seats
Total Seats
Party of Regions30.0072115187
Batkivshchyna25.536240102
UDAR13.9634640
Communist Party13.1832032
Svoboda10.44251338
United Center
033
People's Party
022
Oleg Lyashka Party
011
Soyuz
011
Independent
04444





Total*93.11225225450

As I wrote in the version published at TMC, the math is daunting for the opposition and it remains so. Some members of the opposition have proposed refusing their mandates and UDAR is weighing its support of this option. Also since that time, the CEC, courts, parties, and other interested actors have weighed in on improper activities in the tabulation in some district commissions (such as the one I attended and described in an earlier post). It is possible still that some district races will be annulled and by-elections will be held, but the final decision is pending. In short, the post-election landscape is still shifting in Ukraine.

*The PR vote reflects the ballots cast for parties exceeding the 5% threshold. In other words, just under 7% of votes were "wasted." The seat allocations assume no elections will be annulled.

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