Friday, July 17, 2009

Polling in Moldova

A recent poll, conducted by the Association of Moldovan Sociologists and Demographers and assessed by imedia, suggests that the upcoming election could once again yield a PCRM plurality, but not a majority. According to the poll, respondents indicated the following preferences:

PCRM: 29.7%
Liberal Party: 13.3%
Liberal Democratic Party: 12.8%
Our Moldova: 7.9%
Democratic Party: 7.1%
Other parties: under 3%
Remaining respondents were undecided.

As imedia notes, polls prior to the previous election also yielded a high proportion of undecided respondents. Comparing polling results to the election outcomes, it appears that the PCRM disproportionately attracted undecided voters.

With the possible entry of four opposition parties to parliament, Moldova may be headed toward an ongoing governance crisis like its neighbor, Ukraine, or toward some kind of grand compromise. Acting President Vladimir Voronin's rhetoric points to both possibilities. While he has called the opposition "radical right-wing parties," Voronin has also claimed that the opposition's "ideology" has been changing to promote Moldova's interests and that a coalition could be possible. The overall tone of the campaign, and events in the spring, suggest that ongoing crisis is more likely than compromise, however.

Thanks again to imedia for extensive information on Moldova.

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