Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Voting Underway in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan's CEC has reported 64.12% turnout at 5 p.m. The figures throughout the day show increasing variance in turnout levels at the territorial constituency level. This is not surprising as the upper bound for turnout increases as the day progresses (that is, a reasonable range for turnout at 10 a.m. might peak at 30%, but by mid-day the upper bound is higher.). The figure on the left shows turnout figures reported at each official time period and a regression line. The regression line puts final turnout around 85%, but the fit of a linear regression may not best represent the distribution. Turnout seems to be tapering off and may end up closer to 75%. The final turnout data should be reported at 7p.m. Azerbaijan time.

The CEC is also reporting precinct level data. In the district with the highest turnout at 10 a.m. (TEC 118), some precincts are reporting around 80% turnout at 5:00 p.m. I will look at the turnout data in more detail as the final results come in.

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