Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Post-Election Report, Part 2 - Results

The Central Electoral Commission has not yet processed all of the protocols, but 98% are completed. At this point in time, the results are the following:

Party PR Vote % PR Seats SMD Seats Total Seats
Party of Regions 30.22 73 115 188
Batkivshchyna 25.37 61 43 104
UDAR 13.86 34 6 40
Communist Party 13.26 32 0 32
Svoboda 10.36 25 11 36
United Center
0 3 3
People's Party
0 2 2
Oleg Lyashka Party
0 1 1
0 1 1
0 43 43

Total 93.07 225 225 450

The final vote processing could change SMD results, so those totals may shift slightly. To form a coalition, the Party of Regions needs 38 deputies to reach the "magic number" of 226 for a majority.* Cooperation with the Communist Party will not be enough to establish a majority; Regions will need another party and/or independent candidates to sign on to the agreement. Batkivshchyna and Svoboda are not potential coalition partners, leaving only UDAR. The failure of UDAR to sign a pre-electoral coalition agreement with other parties certainly implies that it might be willing to negotiate with Regions, although some comments from the party suggest otherwise.

Negotiating with independent candidates will be costly for Regions, both in terms of resources and longer-term coalition stability. Independents will require payoffs to join and maintain allegiance to any coalition. While Regions has resources, this parliament is likely to be less stable and more contentious than the most recent convocations. The Rada may not return to the chaos of 1998 when the first task of selecting the speaker was a drawn-out and controversial process, proving to be a harbinger for the whole convocation, but it is likely to be more fractious than the last two convocations.

*The math for an opposition coalition is less promising. Batkivshchyna, UDAR, and Svoboda - if they could make an agreement - are still 46 seats shy of the number needed. Because the Communists are not a feasible partner, they would need to attract nearly all of the independents (which is essentially an impossible task).

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