Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Moldova Gears Up

Moldova's parliamentary election is quickly approaching and a recent opinion poll by the Institute for Public Policy suggests that the Party of Communists should garner around 36% of the vote (see the Moldpres article for some details). Three other parties may pass the 6% threshold: the Liberal Democratic Party, Liberal Party, and Our Moldova Alliance. Our Moldova's polling numbers are the most problematic, with the point estimate below the threshold at 5.4% (the margin of error is 2.8%). An unpublished Imedia report notes that IPP polling has been criticized in the past, in part due to a perception of unreliability. A poll released in the month prior to the 2005 election underestimated the performance of the Bloc of Moldovan Democrats by around 19%, but the predictions for the Party of Communists and Christian Democratic People's Party were close to the final results. You can read more about the election at e-democracy.

[Thanks to Imedia for information on the polling]

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